News
Russia's sovereign debt rating to junk
Date:2015-02-02 15:03
NEW YORK — As Russia deals with the heavy toll of Western sanctions and falling oil prices, a major credit ratings agency on Monday downgraded the country’s sovereign debt to below investment grade, the first time it has fallen to that level in more than a decade.

With Russia’s oil boom years fading and tensions rising with the West, the ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, cited narrowing possibilities for the Russian government and companies to service their debt. A looming problem, the agency’s analysts highlighted, was the lack of options for the Russian central bank, which will have to decide this year between propping up the ruble or helping the teetering domestic banking sector.

“In our view, the Russian Federation’s monetary policy flexibility has weakened, as have economic growth prospects,” the ratings agency wrote.
Russia’s economy is already heading into a deep recession. The agency said it projected average growth of 0.5 percent each year for the next three.
“Stresses could mount for Russian corporations and banks that have foreign currency debt service requirements without a concomitant foreign currency revenue stream,” Standard & Poor’s wrote.
The downgrade cut Russia’s credit rating by only one notch. But that was enough to push the government’s debt into the category of junk bonds.
Standard & Poor’s, along with the other agencies, have been whittling away at Russia’s credit ratings since the conflict with Ukraine began, and oil prices started to slide. The two other main ratings agencies, Fitch and Moody’s, also downgraded Russia’s sovereign debt this month, though not to the level of junk bonds.
Russia’s government has tried to shrug off the ratings actions. The central bank does not formally recognize Western ratings for some banking transactions. Separately, Russia has tried to create a joint ratings agency with China to supplant the three big Western ratings giants.
But even the single downgrade by Standard & Poor’s could ripple widely through Russia’s economy. It will force many bond funds permitted to own only investment-grade securities to sell Russian debt.
The ratings downgrade had been anticipated for weeks, and yet after its publication on Monday the ruble plunged to new lows against the dollar. The currency fell about 7 percent in after-hours trading to more than 68 rubles to the dollar.
Further undermining the ruble on Monday, even before the downgrade, was a burst of fighting in eastern Ukraine over the weekend, resulting in the deaths of 30 people in a rocket attack on the city of Mariupol. The fighting raised the prospects of a new round of United States and European sanctions against Russia.
纽约——俄罗斯目前正在应对西方制裁和油价下跌所带来的惨痛影响;周一,一个主要信用评级机构把俄罗斯的主权债务下调至低于投资级,这是十多年以来,它首次降到这一级别。

 

由于俄罗斯的石油繁荣已经渐渐走下坡路,而与西方的关系日益紧张,信用评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)认为,俄罗斯政府和企业能够偿还债务的可能性极低。该机构的分析师强调,一个挥之不去的隐忧是,俄罗斯央行的选择不多。央行今年将决定是选择力挺卢布,还是帮助摇摇欲坠的国内银行业。
该评级机构写道,“在我们看来,俄罗斯联邦的货币政策的灵活性有所减弱,经济增长前景也是一样。”
俄罗斯经济正在迈入深度衰退。该机构表示,它预计未来三年,俄罗斯的年均增长率将为0.5%。
标准普尔写道,“需要偿还外币债务,而且又没有外币收入来源的俄罗斯企业和银行所面临的压力可能会增加。”
此次降级只把俄罗斯的信用评级下调了一个档位。但是,此举已足以把俄罗斯政府的债券归入垃圾债券之列。
自俄罗斯与乌克兰爆发冲突以来,标准普尔及其他机构不断降低俄罗斯的信用等级,油价也开始下跌。其他两大评级机构惠誉国际(Fitch)和穆迪(Moody's)也在本月下调俄罗斯的主权债务评级,但没有降到垃圾债券等级。
俄罗斯政府试图对评级行动不予理会。俄罗斯央行没有正式承认西方机构对银行交易的评级。另外,俄罗斯试图与中国建立一个联合评级机构,以取代西方国家的三大评级巨头。
但仅仅标准普尔的降级就能对俄罗斯经济产生广泛影响。这将迫使很多只能持有投资级证券的债券基金出售俄罗斯债券。
几周前就已经有人预测会降级,但在标准普尔于周一宣布降级以后,卢布兑美元汇率跌至新低。俄罗斯货币在盘后交易下跌7%,跌至1美元兑逾68卢布。
周一,甚至在被降级之前,卢布就已经进一步走低,因为上周末乌克兰东部爆发冲突,马里乌波尔遭到火箭弹袭击,导致30人死亡。此次冲突增加了美国及欧洲对俄罗斯进行新一轮制裁的可能性。